I know at least some BayBuzz readers are following the US presidential election.
To end your suspense, here’s the outcome …
Obama will win with 315 electoral votes, 45 more than he needs. And he’ll get those electoral votes with 50.9% of the popular vote. When he wins Ohio, you can stop watching until it’s time for his victory speech.
You can go back about your business now.
If I’m close, I’ll disclose the methodology; if I’m way off, I’ll provide an excuse.
Anyone else care to make a prediction?
Tom Belford
P.S. Elections remind me of polls. And polls remind me of our new BayBuzz Reader survey, now online here. If you read BayBuzz magazine, I hope you can take a few minutes to give us your feedback. Very much appreciated.
Curious item on Morning Report saying if Obama gets over 50% he will be the first Democrat President to get a 2nd term with a majority popular vote since FDR. Is that right?
Mark, only one Democrat has been re-elected since FDR, being Clinton. In 1996 he got 49.2% but won easily, as third candidate split the vote.
Ewan Mac
Yea! Ohio for Obama – you clever chap Tom!!!
Whew!
Whew is right. I haven’t relaxed since Bush somehow got in twice.
The Republicans have become a party of mean spirited rapidly aging white men. They have become the flag bearers for a very small group of hugely wealthy (mainly white men); the concerns of the rest of the population do not appear to get a look in, perhaps because they don’t donate the big bucks like the super wealthy.
However as you say this is increasingly sidelining them to minority party status. My faith in the American people has been restored by this election result. I’m glad they managed to see through the nasty rhetoric of the Republicans.
Can’t help thinking the decline of the Act party over here represents similar trends. I saw John Banks the other day – I told him he had no morality. While he kept on smiling, I could tell he didn’t like it!