On Wednesday, with the voting window half over, actual voting returns passed the half-way point in Hastings and CHB, as compared to 2007 total returns, but lag slightly behind in Napier.

Looking at the Hastings returns from 2007, at this point in the campaign that year, 17.97% had voted, with the final return reaching 41.78%. This year at the same point, 22.11% have voted. While this might suggest greater interest in this year’s HDC campaigns (as well as the Hastings constituency of HBRC), in 2004 24.04% had voted at this point, but the final turnout was lower than 2007.

So the question in Hastings is whether a strong start will be complemented by a strong finish in the second half of the campaign. If, for example, turnout this year gains by, say, five percentage points over 2007 (now ahead by about four points), reaching 46.78%, that would translate into about 2500 more votes. BayBuzz pundits: which candidates would benefit?!

In CHB, at this point in 2007, 32.45% had voted, with the final return reaching 57.70%. This year at the same point, 30.35% have voted. In both elections, CHB voters appear to be the fastest out of the gate compared to other jurisdictions. In both 2007 and 2004, CHB easily led the region in final turnout percentage.

In Napier, at this point in 2007, only 19.12% had voted, but voting then accelerated, with the total return reaching 45.63%. This year at the same point, 21.40% have voted.

For the truly addicted, more detail here.

Tom Belford

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