Metris is the super precise interpreter of upcoming weather patterns relied upon by farmers and growers.
Here is their sobering outlook for Hawke’s Bay for the days ahead as Cyclone Vaianu clobbers NZ.
“The forecast models indicate the system will move down from Northland and Auckland and the Coromandel, through the Waikato/BoP and Hawke’s Bay, down though Manawatu, Wairarapa and finally clipping Marlborough before moving off to the West of the South Island.
“The system is spinning clockwise bringing in rain to the Hawke’s Bay from the East. This will see it dump significant amounts of water into the Waipawa and Waipukurau catchments. Over 130mm is forecast in the Ruahine Ranges which could place pressure on stop-banks.
“Rainfall on the Heretaunga Plains is not as heavy with 40mm forecast between Saturday and Monday.
“Wind is a larger risk factor for growers and it will rapidly change direction. Wind peaks on Sunday afternoon from the East with gusts up to 80-100kpm. Then, following a brief calm period of approximately an hour, conditions will see a fast swing in direction to a massive westerly as the eye of the storm moves through.
“180-degree swings of these magnitudes can be damaging to apple trees as late pick trees will still be under heavy fruit loads and will potentially be waterlogged.
“Tukituki catchment growers are at particular risk. Soils should be able to handle 100mm in a 6-hour period, but it will be intense.
“It is noted that the last significant rainfall was 21st January where some 80 to 100mm fell across the region. 30mm fell in mid-February. March and early April has been particularly dry with some 20mm-40mm total recorded since the 16th of February and soils are dry.”
