The HB Climate Action Joint Committee has released its detailed 240-page report on the risks from climate change faced by each of our territorial jurisdictions and the region as a whole.

It’s a substantial volume of work, with risk profiles for each of the CHB, Hastings, Napier and Wairoa districts, as well as the region as a whole … all summarised in nifty ‘Snapshots’.

Joint Committee Chair Xan Harding commented: “One of the key findings from this work is the significant level of variability and gaps in our climate datasets across the region. We have a foundation to work from with this report, but there is more to do so we can all be confident we are making climate risk-informed decisions based on consistent data that is as complete as possible. 

“We are all affected by climate change, and this report is for everybody. It will help to inform us all – councils, mana whenua and communities, public services, businesses and critical lifeline services – to better understand the risks and take action.”

For the regional as a whole and each district, the report discusses risk in six categories: natural environment, built environment, people, the economy, governance and iwi Māori. Here are the quick summaries provided for the region as a whole … no surprises here.

Natural environment 

Climate change will exacerbate existing threats to Hawke’s Bay’s biodiversity. These can include increased pressures from mammalian predators, faster spread of invasive species, accelerated habitat loss and fragmentation, and increased sedimentation in waterways following extreme rainfall events. Native species already under pressure will face additional stresses as temperature and rainfall patterns shift. Marine environments will experience rising temperatures, ocean acidification, and sea level rise, affecting coastal habitats and marine species.

Built environment 

Some of the region’s buildings and infrastructure face increasing risks from multiple hazards. Coastal flooding will progressively impact more assets as sea levels rise, particularly in low-lying urban areas. River and rainfall flooding poses immediate and increasing risks to commercial, residential, and industrial buildings across all districts. Critical infrastructure networks including transportation, electricity distribution, and three waters systems show significant vulnerability, with potential for cascading failures during extreme events.

Human

Climate change will impact community wellbeing through both direct exposure to hazards and indirect effects on social systems. Vulnerable populations, including those in areas of higher socioeconomic deprivation, face disproportionate risks from flooding and isolation. Mental health impacts are expected to increase from both acute disaster events and chronic stressors like drought or recurring floods. Community cohesion may be challenged as climate impacts affect liveability in certain areas. Access to essential services could be compromised during hazard events, with isolation risks particularly high in rural areas.

Economic

The regional economy faces significant disruption from climate change, with both direct damage to assets and broader challenges to tourism, industries, manufacturing and the service sector region wide. Primary industries including agriculture, horticulture and forestry will experience shifting seasonal patterns affecting production cycles, increased water stress during critical growing periods, and greater risks from extreme weather events. Manufacturing, retail, and service sectors face substantial risks from infrastructure disruption and isolation, potentially affecting supply chains and workforce availability. Tourism may experience both challenges from extreme events and opportunities from longer summer seasons.

Governance

Climate change presents complex challenges for the region’s governance domain. Unmitigated climate impacts may be perceived by communities as a failure of authorities to protect property and life, eroding trust in governing institutions. This erosion will be accelerated where impacts exacerbate existing socioeconomic inequities. Key governance challenges include balancing immediate priorities with long-term planning, working across traditional disciplinary boundaries, and maintaining progress through political cycles. The potential for misalignment between national policy frameworks and local implementation capacity creates additional complexity, as councils must translate broad strategic direction into practical local actions with limited resources. The increasing frequency of emergency response operations further strains governance capacity and potentially diverts resources and funds from adaptation planning.

Iwi/ Māori

Māori in the region face unique exposure, risks and sensitivities to climate change. Key hazards as identified in this assessment are river, rainfall, and coastal flooding. The harms associated with being exposed to these hazards can be exacerbated by the existing health and socioeconomic inequities that many  Māori experience. Such hazards can undermine Māori cultural wellbeing through the degradation of and/or loss of connection to the natural environment and damage and/or loss of cultural sites and associated practices.

As noted, the full 240-page report includes risk profiles for each district. The Committee release notes: “Each district-level assessment in the report focuses on hazard exposure of assets and people, including risks to physical infrastructure, communities and the local economy. Differences in available datasets, and the variability of the hazard datasets across the region mean that the district-level findings in this report cannot be directly compared.”

The report doesn’t tell us what to do says Committee Chair Harding, which of course is what most of us are most eager to hear. These general ‘next steps and opportunities for further work’ are listed:

• Enhancing the regional evidence base
• Supporting infrastructure resilience
• Enabling Māori-led adaptation
• Integrating climate risk considerations (into councils’ and other organisations’ strategies and operations)
• Empowering locally-led action

There’s heaps of data in the report to absorb if you care about climate action in Hawke’s Bay and BayBuzz will start to wade through it and report the nuggets.

A good starting point for you is the comprehensive FAQs document (download here).

The full Report and supporting materials, prepared by Urban Intelligence, are on this website.