KPMG's latest agribusiness assessment

In Hawke’s Bay, we don’t make wine, raise beef cattle and sheep, milk dairy cows, grow apples and squash, or harvest pine trees to meet the food and fibre needs of our region, or even the wider population of New Zealand.

We produce virtually all of this stuff for overseas consumers.

So let’s get real, they – not you and I – are our masters when it comes to both the price paid for our production, and equally importantly, the acceptable conditions in which that production occurs. And by that I mean standards and expectations on everything from chemical residues to animal welfare to labour treatment to environmental footprints.

Reading the trade media and the frequent pronouncements from major NZ food producers, it’s clear that our agribusiness leaders understand and are acting on this reality. While one might be dissatisfied with the pace with which the likes of Fonterra or Silver Fern Farms or the horticulture and wine-making sectors might be improving their sustainability practices, their leadership is attuned to overseas expectations – they are customer-driven and know they must be for their industries to survive.

Said one expert at the recent  E Tipu Food and Fibre Summit: In NZ, “export is the heart of our beating lives”, but then noted that our comparative advantages “are rapidly closing”.

Another noted that if NZ stopped producing meat and dairy, the world would not notice. 

It’s too bad so many of our farmers and growers on the ground don’t yet get it. And even more tragic that the current Government does not.

In the past couple of weeks, two thought-leading pieces of analysis of NZ’s agribusiness prospects have been making the rounds, serving as intellectual fodder for the Food Summit. 

Consulting giant KPMG released its 16th annual Agribusiness Agenda, which both reports the concerns of food industry leaders and advises on the trends and challenges facing the sector. Among the warnings given: “There is a clear message that now is not the time to pull back on our climate commitments as they are important to our most important customers around the world.”

This warning comes as the Government is edging toward a nonsensical policy of cutting back NZ methane emissions targets, which effectively would say, if we just keep our methane emissions level, that’s good enough. Which is conceding we’re happy enough with the global havoc current levels of emissions are already causing. A proposition derided by our Climate Change Commission, our Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, and most lately by an ‘open letter’ to PM Luxon from international climate science leaders.

Said Ian Proudfoot, lead author of the KPMG report: “To be honest, I believe NZ is passing the buck on aims to be carbon neutral.”

Major rural lender ASB ($10.3 billion at end of 2024) also released a report, titled The Future Use of Land and How to Fund It. The report begins with this dour observation: “The expected average profitability across all classes of sheep and beef farms is forecast at $45,300 for 2024/25.” Not good news for another inter-generational issue — farm succession.

In response to that reality, the major theme of this report was that livestock farmers needed to incorporate more diversified land uses into their farming approach (e.g., integrating horticulture and farm forestry) to diversify revenue streams and address the challenges faced by extreme weather and emissions reduction. In short, avoiding single land use.

The report also endorses regenerative farming practices as one of its pathways to the future. “Studies of regenerative agriculture have shown significant reductions in CO2 emissions, accompanied by higher yields, lower production costs, lower pest incidence and greater ecosystem service provision compared to their conventional counterparts.”

The report is optimistic, estimating that 10% more optimal (i.e., diverse) use of land could add $10 billion to the rural economy … and this could be achieved within five to seven years.

For serious readers, here’s the KPMG report. And here’s the ASB report.

The leaders get these market-driven principles and opportunities. Someone needs to drive this understanding down to the individual farmer/grower level.

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5 Comments

  1. “Export is the heart of our beating lives” – quaint phrasing! Should be “Exporting is the beating heart of our lives”.

  2. We have a Government that has it’s collective head in the sand regarding climate (and incidentally the environment) – it’s a terrible group being lead by the nose by Seymour and Peters (via Shane Jones) and is largely ineffective other than making it easier for carbon based industries to enlarge or explore to the detriment of the “clean, green” image which is already laughable enough. Until these idiots disappear from the political landscape NZ will never meet it’s obligations for climate and our export markets will ultimately lose to those countries that do a better job

  3. Don’t agree, Grant. We need to look after our food supply in NZ. Agree more should stay here and at better prices but at least they are working. Idiots are Greens, Labour and TP. We need to focus climate items on what matters e.g. not intensifying areas that result in flooding and people dying – not how the Greens will give us free ‘everything’ (at our expense), Labour’s eating sausages and TP hakaing whenever they don’t get their way. Imagine if I hakaed at you and shot my finger at you lol. Babies the lot of them. Can’t use their words like everyone else.

    1. I agree we need to look after our food supply in NZ – and if we muck up our climate obligations we will have no problem with food supply as our overseas markets dry up because we’re seen as climate deniers. Unfortunately that will also come with a reduced export income and higher costs here. As for Parliament – the whole place is a complete shambles with 8% parties running the show and a weak majority party leadership – but we’re stuck with it!

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