To Hawke’s Bay beef farmers … heaps. Here are some convincing numbers from Silver Fern Farms (SFF).

Interviewed in Farmers Weekly, SFF chief executive Dan Boulton noted the value difference achieved by the company’s ‘high-value’ cuts.

Currently 17.5% of SFF’s sales are ‘high-value’ and the company is aiming for 33% by 2030. Bolton said every 1% of product sold higher up the value chain generates an additional $250 million in revenue.

If SFF achieves Bolton’s goal, my math says that’s worth an extra $4 billion or so. Doable? SFF says demand for its prime beef cuts grew 30% last year, with prime venison up 48%. The reward seems worth the chase.

Shifting more product to ‘high-value’ is something SFF and its farmer-suppliers can control, assuming they have the vision and will. A compelling response to ‘uncontollables’ like the Iran war (and other geopolitical disruption to fuel and shipping access/price), US tariff mayhem and lower Chinese beef quotas.

Moreover, there is a tailwind gaining strength. Commentators in the US are saying the widespread and escalating use of GLP-1 weight reduction drugs (Ozempic, etc) in the US is driving a a huge shift in eating habits there, more nutrition-conscious, which includes a greater role for protein. The adult obesity rate is actually declining.

One of those commentators is Mike O’Donnell, currently NZTE’s regional trade director for North America. Writing in The Post, he calls it a “market reset” and says: “GLP-1 appears to accelerate what you might call the premiumisation gap. Products built around excess, habit and craving face stronger headwinds. Products built around quality, nutrition, protein and functionality become more valuable.”

Continuing: “…we are unlikely to win a global race to produce the cheapest ultra-processed calories on earth. That race was over before we even turned up at the starting line. But we are very good at producing high quality dairy, meat, seafood and premium food ingredients with strong provenance stories. In a GLP-1 world, foods increasingly need to ‘earn’ their calories.”

Of course red meat a la Silver Fern Farms isn’t the only source of protein for conscientious American diners, but still the consumption trend is up and appears to be much more structural than a passing fad, which is more than can be said for another key HB/NZ export … wine!

All SFF needs is more cattle and lamb to process, which isn’t a surety, and which of course raises that nasty biogenic methane issue, which NZ has yet to address.