That’s the conclusion of a NIWA-led study just released.
According to NIWA, “This additional rain fell during the most intense parts of the storm, suggesting climate change had an amplified effect on the flooding that occurred.”
NIWA climate scientist Dr Dáithí Stone said: “Cyclone Gabrielle resembled some of the worst-case scenarios that we could have predicted for the region. We therefore wanted to see how much climate change influenced its power, so we compared the actual MetService forecast of the storm against forecasts under conditions representative of a climate without human interference. Our study found a significant increase in rainfall under human-influenced conditions.”
The study reports: “We find that the storm would have dumped about 10% less total rainfall and 20% less peak hourly rainfall without human interference. A similar future amount of warming will result in a comparable total increase in storm rainfall but with about a 30% increase in the peak hourly rate.”
Basically, a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which provides fuel for storms and increases wind speeds, says NIWA.
Chief Meteorologist at MetService Chris Noble added: “The results of this study are incredibly helpful to quantify the influence of climate change on storms in Aotearoa New Zealand. We know the world is warming and the approach we’ve used gives unique insights into how quickly the severity of storms is increasing.”
BayBuzz energy and climate reporting is sponsored by Unison in support of independent local journalism.
