Reporting on population growth in the year to June 2025, Stats NZ recently said that New Zealand’s overall resident population grew by 0.7% to reach 5.3 million, a drop from 1.7% growth in 2024 and 2.3% in 2023. Not a good sign.

Hawke’s Bay’s population actually dropped 0.1%, which translated to a loss of 120 people. [Regional figures sourced here.]

What’s that … three busloads?

Hastings’ population 88,300, grew by 10. I think I saw them celebrating in Westermans the day they arrived.

But booming CHB, population 15,950, gained the most – 60 hardy souls, after gaining 140 in 2024, making it the biggest percentage winner in both years. What’s going on down there? They haven’t even started building Dam 2 yet. 

Meantime, Wairoa, population 8,940, lost 10 people. Maybe they’re the ones who showed up in Hastings! After all, ‘net migration’ is the difference between migrant arrivals and migrant departures. It includes internal migration, where people move within New Zealand.

Napier, population 66,400, lost a whopping 180 people (0.3%) in the year to June 2025, most of them unhappy about reduced public library hours. However, all is not lost for Napier, the city picked up 370 people in 2024, so still 190 ahead. Can anyone explain what the big draw was in Napier in 2024? 

So, all in all, Hawke’s Bay, provisionally estimated population 179,590, was 190 down, 70 up for a net loss of 120.

I don’t know about you, but I find these numbers somewhat suspicious. 

First of all, for HB a loss of 0.1% as touted by StatsNZ should translate into a loss of 179.59 bodies. But the territorial numbers don’t add up to that.

More importantly, I can understand how StatsNZ can confidently know Wairoa lost 10 people … they just call Mayor Craig Little and he can name them. But how do you know that 10 people slipped into Hastings?

There is a serious side to this.

If Hawke’s Bay keeps losing 120 people a year for the next 5-10 years, who is going to buy all those new homes in Te Awa, Middle Road, Arataki Extension, Mission Hills, James Wattie Village?

Back in May, BayBuzz asked NZ’s leading demographer Paul Spoonley to take a close look at Hawke’s Bay’s population statistics and the factors driving those. Here is his conclusion in the article he wrote:

“The Long-Term Plans (LTPs) for two of the local authorities, and the FDS (Future Development Strategy), tend to assume ongoing and relatively significant population growth. Napier’s LTP doesn’t and is planning for annual growth of 0.5% in the 2020s and then dropping to 0.45% in the 2030s. 

“Like many local authorities and development agencies throughout New Zealand, there is a tendency to assume a level of population growth that is unlikely to occur. 

“The pattern of population growth that we have seen in the last two decades is not an indication of what will happen in the 2030s and 2040s. Population growth will slow – and probably plateau as our demography changes.”

His full article is worth a re-read.