In April, StatsNZ released the latest data on the growth stories of regions and centres. And then in May, the latest immigration figures were published. 

Collectively, they send a clear signal that the population growth that the country and many parts of New Zealand experienced prior to – and after – COVID is unlikely to continue. 

Population growth is made up of three elements. 

The first is natural increase, or the number of births compared to deaths.

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which is the number of children born to women, has been in decline for some time and is now well below the rate required to replace the existing population. 

The outcome is that natural increase, which traditionally was how we grew the population, now plays a much less significant role.

In the year to June 2024, Hastings had 300 more births than deaths – not bad – although two decades earlier, it would have been nearly 600.  For both Central Hawke’s Bay and Napier, the figure was less than 100. The next factor is internal migration. Here, CHB is in positive territory and gained 210 people from other regions. In the case of both Napier and Hastings, there was a net loss of more than 100 people for both. 

That leaves net international migration which is now is the most significant source of population growth for the country – and for regions. 

In 2023, the annual population growth rate for New Zealand was 2.8%, and net immigration, contributed 2.4% and was responsible for 86% of that growth. But 2023 was an exceptional year in New Zealand’s immigration history; we have never ever had as many arrivals and never such a high net migration gain (130,000+).

In 2024, immigrants were responsible for 100% of Napier’s population growth. Hastings gained 790 immigrants and this figure helped shore up the growth for the district of 680. Immigrants are a minor part of CHB’s growth of 310.

Hawke’s Bay is home to 3.3% of New Zealand’s population but only gained 2.6% of the net immigration gain for 2024, meaning that the region is not attracting – or retaining – as many immigrants as it should. 

However, immigration tends to go through major swings.

The 2025 figures illustrate this volatility. The current net gain from immigration is 26,400, 80% lower than two years previously. The effect is that we are in for a period of modest population growth. 

This will translate into lower population growth rates for Hawke’s Bay.  

And consider ageing

The other factor which is becoming much more obvious is the rapid ageing of local communities.

Demographers refer to those populations where 20% or more are aged over 65 years of age as ‘old-dominant’ – meaning that these age groups are now the largest. If the proportion of over 65-year-olds are above 30%, then we refer to ‘hyper-aged areas’. 

In Napier, Hastings and CHB, in 2001, the under 14-year-olds were double the proportion of those aged over 65. By 2023, the over 65s outnumbered the under 14-year-olds in Napier and Central Hawke’s Bay (both were now ‘old-dominant’). Hastings still had more under 14-year-olds.

In two decades, all three districts will be old dominant with CHB now into hyper-aging territory. The gap between the young and old as a proportion of the community is now large – and growing.

This has a couple of local impacts. One is the need for local government to think about planning for old age dominant communities. The Future Development Strategy (FDS) being developed by Hastings, Napier and the Hawkes’s Bay Regional Council acknowledges the ageing of communities. But demographically, the equally important challenge is that there are simply fewer people in the working age groups, and therefore fewer workers.

The Long-Term Plans (LTPs) for two of the local authorities, and the FDS (see below), tend to assume ongoing and relatively significant population growth. Napier’s LTP doesn’t and is planning for annual growth of 0.5% in the 2020s and then dropping to 0.45% in the 2030s. 

Like many local authorities and development agencies throughout New Zealand, there is a tendency to assume a level of population growth that is unlikely to occur. 

The pattern of population growth that we have seen in the last two decades is not an indication of what will happen in the 2030s and 2040s. Population growth will slow – and probably plateau as our demography changes. 

Our communities will age, fertility will remain low, and the major (and possibly only) source of population growth will come from international migration. Finding enough revenue to service this new demography will become an even greater challenge as councils come under fiscal stress. And where will the workers come from?

Distinguished Professor Emeritus Paul Spoonley is the author of The ‘New’ New Zealand: Facing Demographic Disruption (Massey University Press).