The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) has forecast a warmer, drier summer for Hawke’s Bay.
NIWA’s seasonal climate outlook for October to December 2023 forecast a 100% chance of El Niño continuing during October-December and over a 95% chance that it will persist through summer.
For Hawke’s Bay NIWA forecast temperatures likely to be above average (50% chance).
Frequent westerly winds are also forecast, which would likely lead to a higher frequency of hot days (more than 25 degrees Celsius).
Rainfall totals are likely to be below normal (45% chance) with the increased westerly winds likely leading to longer dry spells. Seasonal wind speeds are expected to be stronger than normal.
Soil moisture levels are most likely to be below normal (45% chance) while river flows are about equally likely to be below normal (40% chance) or near normal (35% chance).
The country will likely be exposed to dramatic temperature swings. Spells of unseasonable warmth from Australian air masses will likely be followed up by sharply colder southerlies, with little middle ground.
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